Dallas Area Housing Market Slowing — Sort Of

Mortgage By Jim | Jim Catalano | North Texas Real Estate

This summer the housing market in North Texas is showing some signs of slowing. Closed sales in July 2014 are down -20.3 percent compared to the same month a year ago. A year ago sales were up +27.7 percent for July 2013 compared to the same period in July 2012.

What has not slowed is the median sales price which continues to climb. In July the median sales price rose +7.1 percent over July 2013. The median sales price is even higher at +8.0 percent when you compare the last 12 months. You have to go all the way back to January 2012 when the median sales price for residential homes in North Texas was $145,000. Since that time prices have climbed every month to its current high of $179,900.

Sticker shock may be part of the reason home sales have slowed but another reason in my interview with area real estate professionals is the shortage of properties on the market. In North Texas there is only a 3.8 months supply of homes on the market. This is a -8.2 percent decline in July 2014 compared to the same month a year ago. Looking at the last 12 months there is a -22.4 percent decline from a year ago. You have to go back to August 2013 through July 2012 to find a 6.5 months supply of home inventory. 

According to Dr. James Gaines, an economist with the Texas Real Estate Center, he said, “Sales volume will run about equal to last year. But remember, last year was the second-best year ever.” Gains said there is still a lot of upward pressure on home prices in North Texas because of the tight inventory and the areas booming economy.

Gaines said, “Prices will be up between 5 and 10 percent for the year but with lots — and I mean lots — of variability among and between neighborhoods and subdivisions. The good and best neighborhoods probably will see prices up more than 10 percent.”

“In the least desirable neighborhoods, prices may actually go down or stay flat at best.”

The number of new listings in North Texas has slightly declined in July by -2.0 percent but over the last 12 months is up +0.6 percent.

On average, it has taken 50 to 61 dasy for a house listed through the MLS service to sell.

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